This Freedom House study analyzes 67 transitions from authoritarian rule that have occurred since 1972, the beginning of what political scientists call the "Third Wave" of democratization. The study examines four key characteristics of each transition -- the societal forces driving it, the strength of nonviolent civic resistance, the level of violence, and the sources of that violence -- to determine how successful transitions to democracy are achieved. In large measure, the study finds that transitions generated by nonviolent civic coalitions lead to far better results for freedom than top-down transitions initiated by elites. The findings suggest that policy makers should offer support to nascent civic resistance movements in order to foster democratic change.

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http://www.freedomhouse.org/research/specreports/civictrans/...